U.S. GOVERNMENT & POLITICS, SPRING 2011

 

PUBLIC OPINION

 

OSY chapter 10, first ‘half’ of chapter (pp. 276-290)

Wednesday, April 13

 

OSY terms:  public opinion; public opinion polls;  straw polls; Literary Digest polls and their problems in accurately measuring  public opinion; exit polls, tracking polls, push polls;  concerns with determining content and phrasing questions; random sampling, stratified sampling; problems in generating a random sample; problems with contacting respondents;  margin of error; shortcomings of polling; political socialization and the key factors that influence political socialization (pp. 286-290); trends among first-year college students (Figure 10.3, 289); gender differences on issues (Table 10.1, 286); role of political knowledge and cues from leaders in forming and expressing political  views

 

KEY IDEAS FOR TODAY

  • Political socialization – many factors enter into this process, as OSY discuss. These factors are important to know; also note that people react differently to different factors – not everyone is affected in the same way by family, religion, etc., and two people with very similar characteristics may still form very different political views

 

  • From the lengthy set of factors described in the chapter, which ones have been most important in forming your personal political views?  Which ones are most important to the U.S. population in general, and why?

 

  • Any surprises in the breakdown of political opinions by gender (Table 10.1, page 286)?

 

  • Polling – the science of polling has progressed from its early days.  Most polls conducted by major news media are as accurate as can be, considering the difficulties in doing polls well

 

  • In evaluating a poll, always note the sample size and margin of error; these are essential in understanding how much confidence can be placed in poll results

 

  • Most campaign polls are also reasonably accurate – campaigns need good information about how well they are doing, what themes are working, what factors lead people to their voting choices

 

  • Assuming polls collect accurate information, how much should poll results influence the choices of members of Congress and the President? For example, the U.S. public today wants the federal government to spend LESS money, but also wants to maintain nearly every individual program when asked about these individual programs.  These positions are contradictory; what should Congress and the President then do, how do they respond to public opinion?

 

  • Political scientists tend to conduct longer, more in-depth interviews with randomly selected national samples of Americans.  These surveys are less useful at capturing beliefs at one point in time, but more useful in developing details about concepts like political socialization (most of the conclusions in this chapter come from in-depth surveys such as the National Election Studies)

 

 

COMMON TYPES OF POLL QUESTIONS

 

Party Identification questions

1.         Generally speaking, do you usually consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, and independent, a member of some other party, or a member of no party at all?

 

1A.      [If respondent gave any party affiliation] Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or not a strong supporter?

 

1B.      [If respondent said independent] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party, or are you not close to any party?

 

            The measure of party identification, based on these questions

Seven categories:        strong Democrat                                 17% of public in Nov. 2008

                                    not strong (weak) Democrat               17%

                                    independent leaning Democrat           17%

                                    true independent                                 8%

                                    independent leaning Republican         12%

                                    not strong Republican                         13%

                                    strong Republican                               16%

 

Summary:  In 2008 the US public was 34% Democrat, 29% Republican, 37% independent (middle 3 categories) (source: National Election Studies; margin of error +/- 2.5%) OR 51% Democrat (first 3 categories), 8% independent, 41% Republican

 

 

Sample political ideology questions

2.         Some people feel that government has an obligation to assist individuals in need.  Others believe that people for the most part should try and help themselves.  Which of these views comes closest to your position?

 

                        a) government has an obligation to assist individuals in need

                        b) people should try and help themselves

                        c) it would depend on the situation in question

                        d) don't know

 

3.         Some people are afraid the government in Washington is getting too powerful for the good of the county and the individual person.  Others feel that the government in Washington is not getting too strong.  What is your feeling?  Do you think the government is getting too powerful or do you think the government is not getting too strong?

 

                        a) government is getting too powerful

                        b) government is not getting too strong

                        c) not sure

 

 

Typical political participation questions

 

4.         Did you vote in the 2008 elections?

 

5.         Did you engage in any of the following political activities in the last year?

 

Wrote a letter/sent an e-mail to a government official

Wrote a letter to the editor of my local newspaper

Attended a campaign event or rally

Attended a protest event

Participated in a boycott of some product or business

Heard information in church about some political event

Attended a local government meeting

Ran for public office

Contributed money to a political candidate or political party

Belonged to an interest group, or joined an interest group for the first time

Attended a meeting of an interest group to which I belong

Read some printed material in order to become more informed on an issue I care about

Used the internet to find political information