U.S. GOVERNMENT & POLITICS, SPRING 2011

ELECTORAL POLITICS AND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

OSY chapter 12

Monday, May 2

OSY chapter 12 terms: nomination campaign, primary election, general election campaign; key campaign staff and their roles; hard money, soft money, Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), Citizens United v.Federal Election Commission, individual campaign donation limits, political party donation limits, Political Action Committees (PACs), Buckley v. Valeo, public funds, matching funds, 527 political committees, 501(c) groups; importance of traditional media and debates, uses of new media to reach voters; positive ads, negative ads, contrast ads, inoculation ads; presidential nomination campaigns, types of primaries and caucuses, front-loading; how the Electoral College works, problems with the Electoral College; reapportionment; incumbency advantage, redistricting, reasons why incumbents lose elections; midterm elections; patterns in voter choice, key factors that influence voter choice (362-364); patterns in voter turnout, key factors that influence turnout (364-366); reasons why turnout is so low, ways proposed to improve voter turnout; retrospective judgments, prospective judgments

KEY CONCEPTS FOR TODAY

• (from the previous two class periods, finally covered today!!) The two major parties today are described by political scientists as service providers, offering myriad resources to candidates seeking election under the party label: ‘brand name,’ campaign professionals (and training), voter information databases, background polling, money (particularly assistance with raising funds), candidate recruitment, get out the vote (GOTV) efforts

• Elections today are contested by candidates, running under party labels, with considerable support from political parties and interest groups as well; political scientists today examine elections starting with candidates as the focal point

• The US has a confusing system of local, state, and national elections, with more actual election days than any other country – this is one factor thought to contribute to lower voter turnouts in the US

Participation questions: What are the primary reasons why people do not vote? Which of these seem most important as the reasons why people don’t vote, and what if anything could be done to address such issues?

• Why people vote the way they vote (vote choice) is the most studied subject in US political science; click here for a chart showing the major factors and leading theories of vote choice (we will look at 2008 voting patterns in more detail Friday)

• Campaign finance is its own complicated subject; much more to come Friday

• The US presidential nomination process and general election campaign are complex. Candidates have different goals in the two stages and the Electoral College has a significant effect on strategies and outcomes

STRATEGIES in presidential nomination stage: start running early, concentrate on early contests (IA caucus, NH primary) to knock out competitors, have a strong organization and raise money (LOTS of money) for a lengthy battle, gain media attention (preferably free media), develop a distinctive appeal to stand out from other candidates

POST-PRIMARY SEASON for presidential nominees: the WINNERS (the party nominees) start campaigning right away (compare Dole 1996 and Kerry 2004 versus Clinton 1996, Bush 2004, Obama and McCain 2008)

GENERAL ELECTION strategies: Old conventional wisdom – the race was defined at party conventions in the summer, and began around Labor Day (2 months before election). Today the general election race starts as soon as both parties have identified nominees (if not before). The list of strategies is similar to the nomination phase, but not quite the same; use of the media (paid ads, news coverage) to accomplish these goals is a given.

• Define your opponent in ways that will sink his/her candidacy (Bush 2004)
• Establish the “basic appeal” – the major theme of the campaign (Obama 2008)
• Choose a vice presidential nominee who helps in some specific ways (geographic or ideological balance, strengthen nominee’s weak spots, demographic groups, key Electoral College state)
• Rally your party’s base – core constituencies and states that are very likely to vote your way; issue appeals should be targeted to the base without alienating other potential supporters (not always easy to do!)
• Support other candidates in your party (a congressional majority will be helpful later)
• BEFORE 2008, general election fundraising was not an issue – each major party nominee received the same set amount of funds from the FEC; from this point forward, raising the funds necessary to be competitive is an important consideration; Obama’s fundraising abilities in 2008 gave him a significant edge over McCain
• Electoral College math – 270 needed to win; hold party’s base, find and win the “battleground states” (states with lots of electoral votes and where both parties roughly equal in strength; FL, PA, OH tend to pop up in recent elections)
• Debates – do better than the media thinks, perhaps even better than your opponent; first debate is usually FAR more important than any others
• Get out the vote!