POL-344-001 CRITICAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, FALL 2011

1996, PART ONE: THE RISE OF BOB DOLE

Questions for Wayne chapter 8; The Election of 1996 Intro, chapters 1, 2, 3

Wednesday, November 16

(Jacob) Does the focus of Horse-Race Journalism on strategy fundamentally corrupt the process of elections? Or does it simply cover an aspect that we wouldn't otherwise think of? How important is it to know the strategy of a campaign?

(Jacob) The election of 1996 is somewhat similar to the coming election in 2012. The Republicans have won control of the House in a tidal wave of support in the mid-year elections, and the President appears weak. What does Obama need to do to emulate Clinton in order to win the election in terms of the first three chapters we've read?

(Kyle) Very early on Burnham refers to the public's supposed distaste for ideological politics. With the amount of criticism Obama has received for compromising on issues such as health care or tax cuts, does this distaste seem real, or simply the author's opinion?

(Josh) If the general satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the direction of the country under the incumbent parties' watch is the best indicator of how a lot of voters are going to decide, how was the Republican Party able to win the public over to its view that the government was doing too much from 1992 through 1994 and beyond? How does the distinction between "public" and "voter" opinion play into this apparent conservative shift?

(Annie) Was the Republican strategy of women and moderate candidates, apparent focus on environmental concerns, and reassuring words about caring for the helpless and disadvantaged a good strategy?  The Democrats labeled them "wolves in sheep’s clothing."  Should they have gone a completely different route and held a conservative stance?  Why or why not?

(Jake) In 1996, exit polls, and the news stories on the exit polls, primarily in Arizona and Louisiana, contradicted the actual returns. While, in the long-run this did not affect Dole's campaign, it did influence his campaign early on. What are some issues with exit polls? Should exit polls be reformed, altered, completely done away with; or should exit polls be kept the same? Is there any value to exit polls, other than predicting the outcomes?

(Nick) An extremely short section of chapter 3 attempts to answer the question of whether people want divided government. The analysis concludes that people mostly voted along party lines (and thus the answer is no) in answering who should control Congress if Clinton was President, yet 26% of self-reported Democrats did not want a Democratic Congress. Was the 1996 election an affirmation of split government?

(Mario) Pat Buchanan was perhaps the most consistent candidate in the campaign for the 1996 election, with varying poll numbers between 15-20%, never to dip below 15. In the GOP race today, we see a consistent showing by Mitt Romney each week, as other candidates make their case as front runners. Can we draw any other parallels between Buchanan and Romney which would lead to him not obtaining the candidacy?