FTS-100-146: Forecasting via Mathematical Modeling
Fall 2007
FIRST DRAFT
Course description
This seminar introduces students to critical thinking and a
discussion of values, and develops oral and written communication
skills, through an investigation of the
forecasting of future events via mathematical and computer models.
We shall consider what will happen in various situations if
current trends continue.
Students will learn mathematical models that are useful for
financial and economic forecasting, population projections,
ecological predictions, and life contingencies.
We shall read stories that attempt to envision the future.
We shall also take a look at more complex systems, such as the
weather, climate, the Earth's resources, and political dynamics.
Prerequisite: A good knowledge of high school algebra
Instructor: John Holte
Class meetings
-
9:00-9:50 Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday in Olin 319
- Regular attendance, both physical and mental, is required.
Textbooks
- The Everyday Writer 3/e (2005)
by Andrea Lunsford, Bedford/St. Martin's.
This handbook will serve you through all your years
at Gustavus.
- The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
by Meadows, Randers, and Meadows,
Chelsea Green, 2004.
- The Foundation Trilogy
(Foundation (1951),
Foundation and Empire (1952),
Second Foundation (1953))
by Isaac Asimov, various editions.
- Teach Yourself VISUALLY Excel 2007
by Nancy C. Muir, Wiley, 2007.
Course web site
Computers and calculators
- Microsoft Office 2007, including Excel 2007, is
available on the computers in Olin 326.
In addition, we may use other software, such as Maple
and Vensim.
- You should have a scientific calculator to use
in and out of class.
FTS components
All first-year students are required to enroll in a first-term seminar.
As a first-term seminar, this course emphasizes the following essential
components of a liberal arts education:
critical thinking, writing, speaking, and recognizing and exploring
questions of value.
In addition, your first-term seminar instructor will serve as your
first-year academic advisor.
These aspect of the FTS will be woven into the following course
components.
- Writing
Writing components include:
a benchmark writing assignment, a Nobel conference report,
a research report, and many small assignments, including
technical writing exercises, and a written report on a
group project.
- Critical thinking plus
- This seminar, Forecasting via
Mathematical Modeling, presents powerful techniques for
thinking about complex issues.
- Students will learn
critical thinking and creative thinking
through problem solving and critiquing of models.
- Thinking will be required in
computer labs, in-class exercises, homework, and
exams/quizzes.
- Speaking, exploration of values, advising
- Class members will engage in classroom discussions and
lead some discussions.
- They will make formal presentations on their group projects.
- They will also make a number of less formal presentations.
- I view advising as involving an introduction to the
academic life. Accordingly, students will be asked to
participate in sessions that further this goal.
Grading
Individual assignments will be given a letter grade,
a descriptive evaluation, or a point value (out of 100%).
For the seminar as a whole, I'll make a holistic judgment
of the quality of your work and effort, counting the above
major components roughly equally.
Academic honesty
-
The Gustavus Adolphus College Academic Bulletin
states in part:
"The faculty of Gustavus Adolphus College expects all students to adhere
to the
highest standards of academic honesty... In all academic exercises,
examinations, papers, and reports, students shall submit their own work.
Footnotes or some other acceptable form of citation must accompany any use
of another's words or ideas."
The complete statement may be found at:
http://www.gac.edu/oncampus/academics/general_catalog/current/acainfo.cfm
.
-
The following code will be written in full and signed on every examination
and graded paper:
"On my honor, I pledge that I have not given, received, or tolerated
others' use of unauthorized aid in completing this work."
-
"By enrolling classes at Gustavus, you have taken up membership in a
worldwide community of scholars, and like any community, Academia has ethical
standards to which you are expected to adhere.
You are expected to learn and follow the principles of honesty
and integrity that apply in academic life.
Among those
standards are that you faithfully represent your own work,
acknowledge any borrowing from the work of others,
avoid falsifying data or sources, be respectful of other
scholars' efforts and not interfere with their access to
resources (e.g., by misappropriating or damaging library materials),
do a fair share of the work in group efforts, give others
the benefit of your informed opinions and observations in
discussion, and be respectful of others' values, knowledge,
and feelings while developing your own....
Regrettably, serious and deliberate violations of ethics may
incur serious penalties.... If you are in doubt about whether
your work conforms to ethical standards, please inquire--you are,
after all, a learner."
--John Rezmerski, Advising and Registration Manual 1995-96, pp. 60-61.
- A first violation of the academic honesty policy
will result in a zero grade on the paper in
question and a report to the office of the Dean of the Faculty.
A second case will result in a failing grade for the course.
Disability services
The College Catalog states:
"Section 507 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Americans
with Disabilities Act (1990) work together to ensure 'reasonable
accommodation' and non-discrimination for students with disabilities
in higher education. A student who has a physical,
psychiatric/emotional, medical, learning, or attentional
disability that may have an effect of the student's ability to
complete assigned course work should contact the Disability
Services Coordinator in the Advising Center, who will review
the concerns and decide with the student what accommodations
are necessary."
The Disability Services Coordinator Laurie Bickett (x6286) can
provide further information.