MCS 342: Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics II
Spring 2005
Catalog description:
Normal, chi-square, t, and F distributions.
Principles of statistical estimation and hypothesis testing.
Nonparametric methods.
Regression, correlation, and analysis of variance.
Prerequisites: MCS-341 and a previous course in statistics.
Instructor: John Holte
Course web site
Textbook
Class meetings
12:30-1:20 Monday, Wednesday, and Friday
Classroom: Olin 319
Regular attendance, both physical and mental, is required.
Because we meet only three times a week in a course rated
at four semester hours, you should plan to spend substantial time
outside of class on this course.
| Dates
| Chapter
| Topics
| Exams
|
| Feb. 7-11
| 1-7
| Probability & statistics review
|
|
| Feb. 14-23
| 8
| Estimation
| Exam 1
M 3/7
|
| Feb. 25-Mar. 7
| 9
| Properties of point estimators and methods of estimation
|
| Mar. 9-21
| 10
| Hypothesis testing
| Quiz
W 3/23
Exam 2
F 4/15
|
| Mar. 23, Apr. 4-15
| 11
| Linear models and estimation by least squares
|
| Apr. 18-29
| 12
13
| Considerations in designing experiments
The analysis of variance (ANOVA)
| Quiz
Exam 3
M 5/9
|
| May 2-9
| 14
| Analysis of categorical data
|
| May 11-18
| 15
8-14
| Nonparametric statistics
Review
| Final exam
M 5/23 3:30-5:30
|
This is a tentative syllabus. Changes may be made during the semester.
Students are encouraged to discuss course topics with one another.
On assigned work, though, you are expected to do the work on your own.
Your discussion with other students should be confined to matters
related to understanding the problems and general approaches to doing
problems, and you should acknowledge those who help you in this way.
You should not collaborate on problem solutions unless directed otherwise.
- Acknowledge your sources (people and texts).
- In nontrivial problems, show how you get your answers.
- Turn in neat, well-written solutions, not messy first drafts.
Trim "fringes." Staple multiple-page submissions.
- Do not copy collaborative solutions; write up solutions in your own words.
- Turn in homework on time. Each class day late reduces the possible points
by 33%.
- Do extra credit problems entirely on your own.
Exams
There will be three unit exams
and one comprehensive final examination.
In addition there will probably be two scheduled quizzes
and possibly some "pop" quizzes.
Make-up exams will not be given except for medical or family emergency
reasons.
Students who will be absent from an exam for a school-sponsored event
should arrange with me in advance to have an exam sent along with the coach.
If you miss a class for any reason, you are still responsible for
learning what was covered in class and for getting any homework that is
due turned in on time.
The standard way for making up an absence is to turn in a handwritten
report on the material and examples that were covered in class.
Late homework will be penalized as stated under
Homework rules.
If there is a compelling reason for granting an
extension, you must negotiate the arrangements with me.
Grading
Participation and performance factors may modify your grade.
You are expected to contribute to a classroom atmosphere that encourages
learning and is marked by respect for your fellow learners.
This involves, in part, faithful attendance, preparation, and participation,
including attendance in the classes before and after each break.
I may take into account exceptional effort and/or a trend of
improvement throughout the semester.
I appreciate students who are more interested in points of mathematics
than in points of grading.
Academic honesty
-
Page 31 of the Gustavus Adolphus College Academic Bulletin
states in part:
"The faculty of Gustavus Adolphus College expects all students to adhere
to the
highest standards of academic honesty... In all academic exercises,
examinations, papers, and reports, students shall submit their own work.
Footnotes or some other acceptable form of citation must accompany any use
of another's words or ideas."
The complete statement may be found at:
http://www.gac.edu/oncampus/academics/general_catalog/current/acainfo.cfm.
-
The following code will be written in full and signed on every examination
and graded paper:
"On my honor, I pledge that I have not given, received, or tolerated
others' use of unauthorized aid in completing this work."
-
"By enrolling classes at Gustavus, you have taken up membership in a
worldwide community of scholars, and like any community, Academia has ethical
standards to which you are expected to adhere.
You are expected to learn and follow the principles of honesty
and integrity that apply in academic life.
Among those
standards are that you faithfully represent your own work,
acknowledge any borrowing from the work of others,
avoid falsifying data or sources, be respectful of other
scholars' efforts and not interfere with their access to
resources (e.g., by misappropriating or damaging library materials),
do a fair share of the work in group efforts, give others
the benefit of your informed opinions and observations in
discussion, and be respectful of others' values, knowledge,
and feelings while developing your own....
Regrettably, serious and deliberate violations of ethics may
incur serious penalties.... If you are in doubt about whether
your work conforms to ethical standards, please inquire--you are,
after all, a learner."
--John Rezmerski, Advising and Registration Manual 1995-96, pp. 60-61.
- A first violation of the academic honesty policy
will result in a zero grade on the paper in
question and a report to the office of the Dean of the Faculty.
A second case will result in a failing grade for the course.
Extra help
-
I encourage you to see me during my office hours and at other
times when my office door is open.
-
If you have a disability that requires an accommodation, please
see me privately as soon as possible.
MCS 341-342: Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics
MCS 341 concentrates on probability theory;
MCS 342 focuses on mathematical statistics.
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the concepts
of chance and randomness.
Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, analyzing,
and interpreting numerical data.
It makes heavy and essential use of mathematics and probability theory,
but in practice it is not a proper subset of mathematics.
The field of statistics may be divided into descriptive statistics
and statistical inference.
Statistical inference, drawing conclusions from sample data
and assessing the quality of those conclusions,
is the central focus of our textbook,
and it relies heavily on probability theory.
MCS 242: Applied Statistical Methods and
MCS 342: Mathematical Statistics
These courses are given in alternate years.
In MCS 242, "The focus is the application of statistical methods to
practical problems involving real data from many disciplines."
In MCS 342, the focus is on the mathematics behind the
statistical methods used in both MCS 142, Introduction to Statistics,
and in MCS 242.
Still, many applied exercises will be assigned.